MOSCOW — Russia’s top envoy for the Middle East said Thursday that Bashar al-Assad’s government is losing both control and territory to rebel forces, and said “unfortunately, it is impossible to exclude a victory of the Syrian opposition” — the most clear indication to date that Russia sees Mr. Assad, a longtime strategic ally, as headed for defeat.
“We must look squarely at the facts, and the trend now suggests that the regime and the government in Syria are losing more and more control and more and more territory,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, in remarks to Russia’s Public Chamber that were carried by Russian wire services.
Mr. Bogdanov also said that Russia is preparing to evacuate its citizens — a complex task, since for decades, Russian women have married Syrian men sent to study in Russia and returned home with them to raise families. It was the first time an official at Mr. Bogdanov’s level had announced plans for an evacuation, and it sent a message to Damascus that Russia no longer holds out hope that the government can prevail.
Russia is eager to protect its strategic interests in Syria, like a naval facility at the port of Tartus, and has been meeting frequently with opposition delegations, presumably laying the groundwork for a possible transition. In his remarks to the Public Chamber, a Kremlin advisory group, Mr. Bogdanov said he believed that half the Russian citizens living in Syria support the rebels.
“Moreover, some of the people coming here as part of opposition coalitions have Russian passports,” he said.
Russia has cast its stance on Syria as a principled stand against Western-led interventions — a passionate topic for President Vladimir V. Putin, who feels Russia was deceived into supporting a no-fly zone in Libya that served as cover for a military campaign. In recent days, Moscow has been adamant that its fundamental position has not changed.
For many months, the Russian authorities have resisted Western pressure on Moscow to persuade the Syrian leader to step down. Though Russia has said it supports the creation of a transitional government, it has been at odds with the West on whether Mr. Assad — and Iran — would have a voice in it. Mr. Bogdanov said on Thursday that Russia’s stance has been deliberately distorted in the Western news media, an effort “intended to weaken our influence” in the Middle East, and that third-party governments have strengthened rebel forces by providing weaponry.
“Massive supply of modern armaments have pushed the Syrian rebels to stake their hopes on force,” leading to “an acceleration of the spiral of violence,” he said.
Leonid Medvedko, a political analyst who covered Syria for Soviet news services, said officials have so far been reluctant to declare an evacuation of Russian citizens “because there are technical questions, political questions — because it will mean we are fully giving up Syria.”
“It is a humanitarian step, but each humanitarian step has a political meaning,” he said.
From the first, Russia has taken the view that Mr. Assad’s departure would usher in a long and chaotic process of fragmentation in Syria, and most experts this week said they were braced for the beginning of that process. Mr. Medvedko, the former journalist, said he expected Syria to cleave into four parts that would be home to distinct ethnic and religious groups, much as Yugoslavia did in the 1990s.
Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs and head of an influential policy group, said that even if Mr. Assad leaves the country, his countrymen will keep fighting.
“The prevailing view is that it will be complete and desperate chaos,” said Mr. Lukyanov. “To remove Assad will not mean settlement of the Syrian conflict. You can remove him — I don’t know in which way — but what will you do to 300,000 Alawites? They will be fighting for their lives, not for power anymore.”
Russian Envoy Says Syrian Leader Is Losing Control
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Russian Envoy Says Syrian Leader Is Losing Control
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Russian Envoy Says Syrian Leader Is Losing Control
